Scenario Tree and Adaptive Decision Making on Optimal Type and Timing for Intervention and Social-economic Activity Changes to Manage the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kyeongah Nah, Shengyuan Chen, Yanyu Xiao, Biao Tang, Nicola Bragazzi, Jane Heffernan, Ali Asgary, Nicholas Ogden, Jianhong Wu


We introduce a novel approach to inform the re-opening plan followed by a postpandemic lockdown by integrating a stochastic optimization technique with a disease transmission model. We assess Ontarios re-opening plans as a case-study. Taking into account the uncertainties in contact rates during different re-opening phases, we find the optimal timing for the upcoming re-opening phase that maximizes the relaxation of social contacts under uncertainties, while not overwhelming the health system capacity before the arrival of effective therapeutics or vaccines.


Scenario tree, COVID-19 social distancing, lockdown exit strategy, re-opening, transmission dynamics model, stochastic optimization

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